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Efectos de la Inmigración sobre Crecimiento Regional en España

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  • José Ignacio Conde Ruiz
  • Juan Ramón García López
  • María Navarro

Abstract

España ha pasado en muy poco tiempo de ser un país de emigrantes a un país de inmigrantes. El flujo medio anual de entrada es este nuevo siglo es de 600.000 al año (en la actualidad la inmigración representa el 10,5% de la población total, frente al 2,2% que representaba en el año 2000). Esto ha permitido situar la tasa de crecimiento poblacional en su nivel más alto de la historia. Además, el fenómeno no ha sido homogéneo en todo el territorio nacional, más del 55% del stock de inmigrantes se concentra en cuatro CCAA (Madrid, Cataluña y la C. Valencia). El objetivo de este artículo es calcular, mediante un ejercicio contable los efectos de la inmigración sobre la renta per-cápita por regiones de la economía española. Para ello analizaremos los efectos de la inmigración sobre los tres factores que determinan la renta per-cápita (factor demográfico, tasa de empleo y productividad). Vemos que la inmigración ha tenido un efecto positivo sobre los dos primeros, pero negativo sobre la productividad. En términos cuantitativos, para el conjunto de España la inmigración ha tenido un impacto neto neutro sobre la renta per-cápita (0,05 puntos en promedio anual). A nivel regional encontramos diferencias significativas. Por un lado, encontramos comunidades como La Rioja, Murcia, Castilla la Mancha, Canarias y Andalucía, donde el impacto global de la inmigración sobre la tasa de crecimiento de la renta per-cápita ha sido muy positivo. Pero por otro lado, encontramos regiones como Madrid, Navarra, Cataluña, Baleares o Aragón para las cuales el balance ha sido negativo. El impacto de la inmigración sobre el PIB es mucho mas positivo. A nivel nacional más del 38% del crecimiento medio del PIB anual se puede asignar a la inmigración. Además, el impacto sobre el PIB regional es muy positivo en todas las CCAA.

Suggested Citation

  • José Ignacio Conde Ruiz & Juan Ramón García López & María Navarro, 2008. "Efectos de la Inmigración sobre Crecimiento Regional en España," Economic Reports 09-08, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdacee:09-08
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