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Measuring poverty persistence with missing data with an application to Peruvian panel data

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  • Diaz, Yadira
  • Pudney, Stephen

Abstract

We consider the estimation of measures of persistent poverty in panel surveys with missing data, focusing on the persistent poverty headcount, its duration-adjusted variant, and a related measure used by the European Union as an indicator of the risk of persistent poverty. We develop a partial identification approach to allow for data missing-not-at-random, and apply it to panel data from Peru for 2007-11. The “worst case†bounds are very wide, but we achieve much more precise identification by adding a set of weak a priori restrictions. Standard non-response weighting adjustments cannot be relied upon to remove missing-data bias.

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Paper provided by Institute for Social and Economic Research in its series ISER Working Paper Series with number 2013-22.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2013
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Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2013-22

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Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK
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  1. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
  2. Cheti Nicoletti & Franco Peracchi & Francesca Foliano, 2009. "Estimating Income Poverty in the Presence of Missing Data and Measurement Error," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 252, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  3. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 755-782, 03.
  4. Cheti Nicoletti, 2010. "Poverty analysis with missing data: alternative estimators compared," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, February.
  5. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott and Tassew Woldehanna, 2011. "Growth and chronic poverty: Evidence from rural communities in Ethiopia," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics WPS/2011-18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Stephen Jenkins & Philippe Van Kerm, 2014. "The Relationship Between EU Indicators of Persistent and Current Poverty," Social Indicators Research, Springer, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 611-638, April.
  7. repec:ese:iserwp:2011-30 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Andy Dickerson & Gurleen Popli, 2011. "Persistent Poverty and Children's Cognitive Development: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study," Working Papers, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics 2011023, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
  9. Zaigraev, Alexander & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2010. "Exact bounds on the probability of at least k successes in n exchangeable Bernoulli trials as a function of correlation coefficients," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 80(13-14), pages 1079-1084, July.
  10. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 1998. "Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14101, August.
  12. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
  13. Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2003. "Payoffs from Panels in Low-Income Countries: Economic Development and Economic Mobility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 112-117, May.
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