IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/722.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Activity: The Cases of Egypt and Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Magda Kandil

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • Nazire Nergiz Dincer

    (State Planning Organization, Turkey)

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output, the price level, and the real value of components of aggregate demand in Egypt and Turkey. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods and producers’ forecasts of relative competitiveness. In Turkey, anticipated exchange rate appreciation has significant adverse effects, contracting the growth of real output and the demand for investment and exports, while raising price inflation. Further, unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations have asymmetric effects that highlight the importance of unanticipated depreciation in shrinking output growth and the growth of private consumption and investment, despite an increase in export growth. In Egypt, anticipated exchange rate appreciation decreases export growth. Given asymmetry, the net effect of unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations decreases real output and consumption growth and increases export growth, on average over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Magda Kandil & Nazire Nergiz Dincer, 2007. "A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Activity: The Cases of Egypt and Turkey," Working Papers 722, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:722
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/722.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://bit.ly/2n14gnv
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    3. Hazem El Beblawi, 2008. "Economic Growth in Egypt," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28047, December.
    4. François Bourguignon & Francisco Ferreira & Michael Walton, 2007. "Equity, efficiency and inequality traps: A research agenda," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 5(2), pages 235-256, August.
    5. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(3), pages 565-591, September.
    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mustapha Kamel Nabli, 2007. "Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth : Better Governance and Deeper Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6914, December.
    8. Commission on Growth and Development, 2008. "The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6507, December.
    9. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2009. "Testing the neocon agenda: Democracy in resource-rich societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 293-308, April.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/012, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    12. Nadia Belhaj Hassine, 2012. "Inequality of Opportunity in Egypt," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 26(2), pages 265-295.
    13. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    14. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Nadia Belhaj Hassine & Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, 2012. "Inequality of Opportunity in Child Health in the Arab World and Turkey," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 1250006-121, January.
    15. Harrigan Jane R & El-Said Hamed, 2010. "The Economic Impact of IMF and World Bank Programs in the Middle East and North Africa: A Case Study of Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, 1983 - 2004," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-25, November.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "South Africa: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/378, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Haber, Stephen & Menaldo, Victor, 2011. "Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-26, February.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Rwanda: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/382, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Nisreen Salti, 2008. "Oil Greasing the Wheels: When Do Natural Resources Become a Blessing?," Working Papers 439, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
    20. Mr. Carlos A Leite & Jens Weidmann, 1999. "Does Mother Nature Corrupt? Natural Resources, Corruption, and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 1999/085, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Ishac Diwan, 2012. "A Rational Framework for the Understanding of the Arab Revolutions," CID Working Papers 237, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    22. Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis & Mustapha Kamel Nabli & J. Keller, 2007. "Exchange Rate Management within the Middle East and North Africa Region," Post-Print hal-00204783, HAL.
    23. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    24. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    25. Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "An Alternative Interpretation of the 'Resource Curse': Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 9424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: Is the Current Crisis Different?," IMF Working Papers 2010/068, International Monetary Fund.
    27. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Nigeria: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/239, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Raj M. Desai & Anders Olofsgård & Tarik M. Yousef, 2009. "The Logic Of Authoritarian Bargains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 93-125, March.
    29. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Guinea: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/392, International Monetary Fund.
    30. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "France: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/343, International Monetary Fund.
    31. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Republic of Estonia: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/358, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2012. "Resource Rents, Political Institutions and Economic Growth," Documentos de Trabajo 413, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    33. Page, John, 2007. "Boom, bust, and the poor: Poverty dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, 1970-1999," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 832-851, February.
    34. Paul Collier & Rick Van Der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2010. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 84-118, April.
    35. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/028, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amr Hosny & Magda Kandil & Hamid Mohtadi, 2013. "The Egyptian Economy Post-Revolution: Sectoral Diagnosis of Potential Strengths and Binding Constraints," Working Papers 767, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.
    2. Rizwan Raheem AHMED & Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI & Jolita VVEINHARDT & Dalia STREIMIKIENE, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of Export, Import, and Inflation: A Case of Pakistan," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 117-130, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed Galal & Hoda Selim, 2013. "The Elusive Quest for Economic Development in the Arab Countries," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1350002-131, January.
    2. Kaznacheev, Peter, 2013. "Resource Rents and Economic Growth: Economic and institutional development in countries with a high share of income from the sale of natural resources. Analysis and recommendations based on internatio," EconStor Research Reports 121950, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Adrian Boos & Karin Holm‐Müller, 2012. "A theoretical overview of the relationship between the resource curse and genuine savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainability," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 145-159, August.
    5. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    6. Cockx, Lara & Francken, Nathalie, 2016. "Natural resources: A curse on education spending?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 394-408.
    7. Mignamissi, Dieudonné & Malah Kuete, Yselle Flora, 2021. "Resource rents and happiness on a global perspective: The resource curse revisited," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Ahmed, Khalid & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Dynamics between economic growth, labor, capital and natural resource abundance in Iran: An application of the combined cointegration approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 213-221.
    9. Hoda Selim & Chahir Zaki, 2014. "The Institutional Curse of Natural Resources in the Arab World," Working Papers 890, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    10. Bildirici, Melike E. & Gokmenoglu, Seyit M., 2020. "Precious metal abundance and economic growth: Evidence from top precious metal producer countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    12. Behzadan, Nazanin & Chisik, Richard & Onder, Harun & Battaile, Bill, 2017. "Does inequality drive the Dutch disease? Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 104-118.
    13. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Robert M. Stern, 2011. "Trade in Financial Services—Has the IMF been Involved Constructively?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 65-92, February.
    15. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "One Hundred Years of Oil Income and the Iranian Economy: A Curse or a Blessing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4118, CESifo.
    17. Mr. Steven V Dunaway & Mr. Vivek B. Arora, 2007. "Pension Reform in China: The Need for a New Approach," IMF Working Papers 2007/109, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Matata Ponyo Mapon & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2019. "The artefact of the Natural Resources Curse," Papers 1911.09681, arXiv.org.
    19. Christian Hubert Ebeke & Luc Désiré Omgba, 2011. "Oil rents, governance quality, and the allocation of talents in developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-00616587, HAL.
    20. Yunyong Thaicharoen & Kiatipong Ariyapruchya & Titima Chucherd, 2004. "Rising Thai Household Debt: Assessing Risks and Policy Implications," Working Papers 2004-01, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:722. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.