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Using A Neural Network-Based Methodology for Credit–Risk Evaluation of A Tunisian Bank

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  • Hamadi Matoussi

    ()
    (University of Manouba, Tunisia)

  • Aida Abdelmoula
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    Abstract

    Credit–risk evaluation is a very important and challenging problem for financial institutions. Many classification methods have been suggested in the literature to tackle this problem. Neural networks have especially received a lot of attention because of their universal approximation property. This study contributes to the credit risk evaluation literature in the MENA region. We use a multilayer neural network model to predict if a particular applicant can be classified as solvent or bankrupt. We use a database of 1100 files of loans granted to commercial and industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in 2002 and 2003. Our main results are: a good capacity prediction of 97.1% in the training set and 71% in the validation set for the non cash-flow network. The introduction of cash-flow variables improves the prediction quality to 97.25% and 90% respectively both in the in-sample and out-of-sample sets. Introduction of collateral in the model substantially improves the prediction capacity to 99.5% in the training dataset and to 95.3% in the validation dataset.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Economic Research Forum in its series Working Papers with number 408.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2008
    Date of revision: Jun 2008
    Publication status: Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)
    Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:408

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