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La Prediction De Faillite Des Entreprises Tunisiennes Par La Regression Logistique


Author Info

  • Hamadi Matoussi


  • Rim Mouelhi


  • Sayah Salah

    (ESSEC - Université de Tunis)

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    Nous avons cherché dans ce papier à modéliser la probabilité de défaillance des entreprises tunisiennes au terme d'une regression logistique. Il ressort des résultats obtenus un taux de bon classement des entreprises dans leur groupe d'origine de l'ordre de 87% deux ans avant et de 91% un an avant la défaillance. Ce taux est de l'ordre de 94% dans l'échantillon de contrôle. Nous soulignons, par ailleurs, le poids des ratios de trésorerie, de solvabilité, d'équilibre et d'autonomie financière dans la détermination de la probabilité de défaillance ; ce qui est conforme à l'analyse financière classique basée sur la méthode des ratios

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00587769.

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    Date of creation: May 1999
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    Publication status: Published - Presented, 20ÈME CONGRES DE L'AFC, 1999, France
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00587769

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    Keywords: prédiction de faillite; entreprises tunisiennes; régression logistique;


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    1. Dambolena, Ismael G & Khoury, Sarkis J, 1980. " Ratio Stability and Corporate Failure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 1017-26, September.
    2. Micha, Bernard, 1984. "Analysis of business failures in France," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 281-291, June.
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