Measuring Vulnerability to Multidimensional Poverty in Tunisia: Dual cut-off method and Fuzzy Sets approach

The aim of this paper is to measure the vulnerability of multidimensional poverty in Tunisia. The term vulnerability refers to exposure to shocks and stress, and difficulty in coping with them. In the first part of this study, we intend to identify the Tunisian households who are likely to be multidimensional poor in the future using the dual cut-off method. In the second part, we will use the fuzzy sets theory in order to identify the resilience in exploiting opportunities and in resisting or recovering from the negative effects of the shocks, and to propose a measure of vulnerability for each household identified in the first step. Our empirical findings show that vulnerable households comprise some that are deprived in only one dimension, and thus, are excluded from the group of households considered poor. The vulnerable households are, then, regrouped into three sets that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive with respect to the identified vulnerable population. The individuals with a high degree of membership in each group are in a state of extreme vulnerability and their abilities to cope with shocks effects are low and they can be the poor of tomorrow. Preventive policies must take into account their situations in order to curb the flows of the poor and to protect households from becoming poor in the future. These poverty prevention policies can be an effective means to achieve the first four Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).