Risk in Transport investments
AbstractWe discuss how the standard Cost-Benefit Analysis should be modified in order to take risk (and uncertainty) into account. We propose different approaches used in finance (Value at Risk, Conditional Value at Risk, Downside Risk Measures, and Efficiency Ratio) as useful tools to model the impact of risk in project evaluation. After introducing the concepts, we show how they could be used in CBA and provide some simple examples to illustrate how such concepts can be applied to evaluate the desirability of a new project infrastructure.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2007-22.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
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Cost-Benefit Analysis; Risk; transportation; large project; Value at Risk; Conditional Value at Risk.;
Other versions of this item:
- NEP-ALL-2007-09-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-PPM-2007-09-09 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-RMG-2007-09-09 (Risk Management)
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- Jean-Jacques Laffont & Jean Tirole, 1993. "A Theory of Incentives in Procurement and Regulation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121743, December.
- Laurino, Antonio & Beria, Paolo & Grimaldi, Raffaele, 2010. "Financing transport infrastrucure projects in Italy: a critical analysis of the main approaches," MPRA Paper 29140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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