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A simple estimation method and finite-sample inference for a stochastic volatility model

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  • Pascale VALERY (HEC-Montreal)
  • Jean-Marie Dufour (University of Montreal)

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to fulfill the gap for testing hypotheses on parameters of the log-normal stochastic volatility model, more precisely, to propose finite sample exact tests in the sense that the tests have correct levels in small samples. To do this, we examine method-of-moments-based tests and we provide explicit expressions for all the moments and the estimators which simplifies highly the test procedures. We then state the asymptotic distribution of the estimator as well as that of the proposed test statistics for testing the null hypothesis of no persistence in the volatility. We then compare the finite sample properties of the standard asymptotic techniques to that of Monte Carlo tests which are valid in finite samples and allow for test statistics whose null distribution may depend on nuisance parameters. In particular Maximized Monte Carlo tests introduced by Dufour (1995) have the exact level in finite samples when the p-value function is maximized over the entire set of nuisance parameters

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 153.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:153

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Keywords: exact tests; Monte Carlo tests; C-alpha tests; stochastic volatility model; method-of-moments;

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  1. Danielsson, J & Richard, J-F, 1993. "Accelerated Gaussian Importance Sampler with Application to Dynamic Latent Variable Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S153-73, Suppl. De.
  2. Marine Carrasco & Xiaohong Chen, 1999. "b - Mixing and Moment Properties of Various GARCH, Stochastic Volatility and ACD Models," Working Papers 99-41, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  3. Danielsson, Jon, 1994. "Stochastic volatility in asset prices estimation with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 375-400.
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  5. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsieh, David & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Diagnostics," Working Papers 95-36, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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  7. Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  12. Dufour, J.M. & Khalaf, L. & Bernard, J.T. & Genest, I., 2001. "Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Tests for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH Effects," Cahiers de recherche 2001-08, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  13. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2005. "Monte Carlo Tests with Nuisance Parameters: A General Approach to Finite-Sample Inference and Nonstandard Asymptotics," Cahiers de recherche 2005-03, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  17. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
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  19. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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  21. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265.
  22. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
  23. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-52, July.
  24. Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 17-39, February.
  25. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
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