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Tobin LIVES: Integrating evolving credit market architecture into flow of funds based macro-models

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  • Duca, John
  • Muellbauer, John

Abstract

After the global financial crisis, there is greater awareness of the need to understand the interactions between the financial sector and the real economy and hence the potential for financial instability. Data from the financial flow of funds, previously relatively neglected, are now seen as crucial to the data monitoring carried out by central banks. This paper revisits earlier efforts to understand financial-real linkages, such those of Tobin and the Yale School, and proposes a modeling framework for analysing the household flow of funds jointly with consumption. The consumption function incorporates household income, portfolios of assets and debt held at the end of the previous period, credit availability, and asset prices and interest rates. In a general equilibrium setting, these all have to be endogenised and since households make consumption and housing purchase decisions jointly with portfolio decisions, there is much to be gained in modeling a household sub-system of equations. Major evolutionary structural change – namely the evolving credit architecture facing households – is handled by our ‘Latent Interactive Variable Equation System’ (LIVES) approach. A byproduct is improved understanding of the secular decline in US saving rate, as well as of the household financial accelerator. Moreover, the models discussed in this paper offer new ways of interpreting data on credit, money and asset prices, which are crucial for central banks. JEL Classification: B22, E21, E44, E51, G11.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1581.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131581

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Keywords: Consumption; credit constraints; Finance and the real economy; financial crisis; household portfolios.;

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  1. Aron, Janine & Duca, John V & Muellbauer, John & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Paul Bennett & Richard Peach & Stavros Peristiani, 1998. "Structural change in the mortgage market and the propensity to refinance," Staff Reports 45, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "Wealth, Credit Conditions, and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59, pages S161-S196, October.
  5. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. David Blake, 2004. "Modelling the composition of personal sector wealth in the UK," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 611-630.
  7. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
  8. David Backus & Douglas D. Purvis, 1978. "An Integrated Model of Household Flow-of-Funds Allocations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 493, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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Cited by:
  1. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a housing market overheated enough to threaten stability?," Economics Series Working Papers 623, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," CAMA Working Papers 2013-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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