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Market risk premium: Required, historical and expected

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  • Fernandez, Pablo

    (IESE Business School)

Abstract

The market risk premium is one of the most important but elusive parameters in finance. It is also called equity premium, market premium and risk premium. The term 'market risk premium' is difficult to understand because it is used to designate three different concepts: 1) Required market risk premium, which is the incremental return of a diversified portfolio (the market) over the risk-free rate (return of treasury bonds) required by an investor. It is needed for calculating the required return to equity (cost of equity). 2) Historical market risk premium, which is the historical differential return of the stock market over treasury bonds. 3) Expected market risk premium, which is the expected differential return of the stock market over treasury bonds. Many authors and finance practitioners assume that the expected market risk premium is equal to the historical market risk premium and to the required market risk premium. The CAPM assumes that the required market risk premium is equal to the expected market risk premium. However, the three concepts are different. The historical market risk premium is equal for all investors, but the required and the expected market risk premium are different for different investors. We also claim that there is no required market risk premium for the market as a whole: different investors use different required market risk premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "Market risk premium: Required, historical and expected," IESE Research Papers D/574, IESE Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0574
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    File URL: http://www.iese.edu/research/pdfs/DI-0574-E.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, June.
    2. Ľluboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, August.
    3. Roger G. Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2003. "Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm354, Yale School of Management.
    4. Scott Mayfield, E., 2004. "Estimating the market risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 465-496, September.
    5. Merton H. Miller, 2000. "The History Of Finance: An Eyewitness Account," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 13(2), pages 8-14, June.
    6. Haitao Li & Yuewu Xu, 2002. "Survival Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1981-1995, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2015. "The Structural Stability of a One-Day Risk Premium in View of the Recent Financial Crisis," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 136-142.
    2. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo, 2009. "The Economic Psychology of Stock Market Bubbles in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 667-691, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    required market risk premium; historical market risk premium; expected market risk premium; risk premium; equity premium; market premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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