Stock prices and the equity premium during the recent bull and bear markets
AbstractAfter the sharp run-up in stock prices during the bull market of the late 1990s and their subsequent collapse in 2001–2002, the prices of equities as measured by the S&P 500 are once again uncommonly high relative to companies’ current and prospective earnings, causing some to question whether they are too high relative to the underlying value of the companies they represent. ; This paper compares the recent performance of the equities constituting the S&P 500 with their performance since the 1940s and then extends the familiar Gordon model of equity pricing to examine the contributions of the factors that are likely to influence stock prices in the future. The authors conclude that current valuations do not necessarily indicate a bubble: Rapidly growing earnings and high returns on capital, consistent with a return to full employment, could justify prevailing prices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal New England Economic Review.
Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard W. Kopcke, 2000. "Has the stock market become too narrow?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 31-43.
- Roger G. Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2003. "Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm354, Yale School of Management.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004.
"Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market,"
NBER Working Papers
10418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
- Angelo Ranaldo & Rainer Häberle, 2008. "Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: The Active Investment Strategies behind Index Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(1), pages 55-81.
- Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06.
- Richard W. Kopcke, 2005. "The taxation of equity, dividends, and stock prices," Public Policy Discussion Paper 05-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.