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The taxation of equity, dividends, and stock prices

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Author Info
Richard W. Kopcke
Abstract

The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) essentially halved the tax rate on dividends and reduced the top tax rate on capital gains. This paper explores the likely effect of JGTRRA on the composition of returns on corporations’ common stock. Both larger corporations’ past behavior and theory suggest that the recent tax cuts are not likely to increase dividend payouts significantly. Instead, in the short run, dividends will continue to rise in the customary way in response to the recovery in earnings. In the longer run, the tax cuts will principally reduce companies’ cost of capital, fostering capital deepening, when the economy is at full employment. With constant returns to scale prevailing at full employment, capital deepening reduces corporations’ average gross return on assets and equity. Because the tax cuts increase the value of each dollar of earnings for shareholders, they could raise price-earnings ratios by more than 10 percent and stock prices by more than 6 percent. By fostering capital deepening, the tax cuts also tend to increase the real compensation of labor at full employment.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Public Policy Discussion Paper with number 05-1.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbpp:05-1

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Keywords: Taxation ; Dividends ; Stock - Prices;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. James Poterba, 2004. "Taxation and Corporate Payout Policy," NBER Working Papers 10321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2001. "Disappearing dividends: changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-43, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411. [Downloadable!]
  4. Harry DeAngelo & Linda DeAngelo & Rene Stulz, 2004. "Dividend Policy, Agency Costs, and Earned Equity," NBER Working Papers 10599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl, 2004. "Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide," NBER Working Papers 11000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Dividend Policy, Agency Costs, and Earned Equity," Working Paper Series 2004-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. repec:bep:maccon:v:4:y:2004:i:1:p:1161-1161 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Richard W. Kopcke & Matthew S. Rutledge, 2004. "Stock prices and the equity premium during the recent bull and bear markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 63-85. [Downloadable!]
  9. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J., 2004. "Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 425-456, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Alon Brav & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey & Roni Michaely, 2003. "Payout Policy in the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 9657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Auerbach, Alan J., 2002. "Taxation and corporate financial policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 19, pages 1251-1292 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Franklin Allen & Roni Michaely, 2002. "Payout Policy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-21, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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    • Allen, Franklin & Michaely, Roni, 2003. "Payout policy," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 337-429 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Shefrin, Hersh M. & Statman, Meir, 1984. "Explaining investor preference for cash dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 253-282, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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