IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dui/wpaper/0703.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the impact of different permit allocation rules on optimal power plant portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Weber

    (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Philip Vogel
  • Oliver Woll

    (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)

Abstract

The electricity generation mix of many European countries is strongly dominated by fossil fuelled power plants. Given that CO2-emissions are responsible for a major part of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, emission trading has been introduced in the EU in 2005. Under the European emissions trading scheme (ETS), the emission quantities of major industry branches, most notably the electricity industry are capped and a system of tradable CO2 emission permits is established. Although the effects of emission trading on emissions, industry structure and investment had been analysed on beforehand by a number of models, the impact of rules for primary permit allocation has so far hardly been focused on. This was mostly seen as a distributional issue not affecting the efficiency of the market mechanism itself. However a closer look at the permit allocation rules shows that the number of permits allocated to new plants often depends on their fuel and technology (e. g. in Germany). This may consequently have distorting effects on market prices and investment decisions, which so far have been hardly investigated quantitatively. In order to analyse such effects, a mixed complimentary programming (MCP) model is developed, which allows to model investment incentives in the electricity sector. It takes into account major power generation technologies, emission constraints, endogenous investment allocation rules and price elasticity of demand. In particular also the time-varying structure of electricity demand is accounted for and the corresponding distinction of base- and peak-load technologies. The model is applied to the EU-27 focusing on the year 2015, i.e. on the third trading period, where so far no decision has been made on the allocation rules to be applied. From this analysis we derive the average market prices for emission allowances and electricity and the optimal power plant capacities under different allocation schemes. In a pure environmental perspective the auctioning of permits is expected to be a first-best solution, but it could endanger the competitiveness and the security of supply of the European Union. The reason for the latter is that the generation mix becomes biased in favour of gas fuelled plants, which are associated with the least specific CO2-emissions, but have to be imported to a large extent from politically unreliable regions like Russia or the Middle East. The results of our analysis however show that allocating emissions for free, based on expected full-load hours and fuel specifics, will lead to higher CO2-prices whilst the effect of securing supply is only limited. Also electricity prices will only be slightly lower, so that the contribution of free allocation schemes to economic competitiveness is also limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Weber & Philip Vogel & Oliver Woll, 2007. "Modelling the impact of different permit allocation rules on optimal power plant portfolios," EWL Working Papers 0703, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Aug 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:dui:wpaper:0703
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wiwi.uni-due.de/fileadmin/fileupload/BWL-ENERGIE/Arbeitspapiere/RePEc/pdf/wp0703_WeberVogelWoll_AllocationRules_August2007.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karsten Neuhoff & Kim Keats Martinez & Misato Sato, 2006. "Allocation, incentives and distortions: the impact of EU ETS emissions allowance allocations to the electricity sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 73-91, January.
    2. Cramton, Peter & Kerr, Suzi, 2002. "Tradeable carbon permit auctions: How and why to auction not grandfather," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 333-345, March.
    3. R. H. Coase, 2013. "The Problem of Social Cost," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 837-877.
    4. Regina Betz & Wolfgang Eichhammer & Joachim Schleich, 2004. "Designing National Allocation Plans for Eu-Emissions Trading — A First Analysis of the Outcomes," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(3), pages 375-425, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu-Jie Hu & Lishan Yang & Fali Duan & Honglei Wang & Chengjiang Li, 2022. "A Scientometric Analysis and Review of the Emissions Trading System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Raffensperger, John F., 2011. "Matching users' rights to available groundwater," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(6), pages 1041-1050, April.
    3. Karoline S. Rogge & Christian Linden, 2010. "Cross-Country Comparison of the Incentives of the EU Emission Trading Scheme for Replacing Existing Power Plants in 2008–12," Energy & Environment, , vol. 21(7), pages 757-783, November.
    4. Christoph Weber & Philip Vogel, 2014. "Contingent certificate allocation rules and incentives for power plant investment and disinvestment," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 292-317, December.
    5. Rogge, Karoline S. & Linden, Christian, 2010. "Cross-country comparison of the replacement incentives of the EU ETS in 2008-12: the case of the power sector," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S1/2010, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    6. Ahn, Jaekyun, 2014. "Assessment of initial emission allowance allocation methods in the Korean electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 244-255.
    7. Chen, Chunhua & Jiang, Dequan & Lan, Meng & Li, Weiping & Ye, Ling, 2022. "Does environmental regulation affect labor investment Efficiency?Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 82-95.
    8. Alessandra Casella & Adam B. Cox, 2018. "A Property Rights Approach to Temporary Work Visas," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(S1), pages 195-227.
    9. Ahman, Markus & Burtraw, Dallas & Kruger, Joseph & Zetterberg, Lars, 2007. "A Ten-Year Rule to guide the allocation of EU emission allowances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1718-1730, March.
    10. Zhou, P. & Wang, M., 2016. "Carbon dioxide emissions allocation: A review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 47-59.
    11. Park, Ji-Won & Kim, Chae Un & Isard, Walter, 2012. "Permit allocation in emissions trading using the Boltzmann distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4883-4890.
    12. Yuanguang Yu, 2012. "An Optimal Ad Valorem Tax/Subsidy with an Output-Based Refunded Emission Payment for Permits Auction in an Oligopoly Market," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 235-248, June.
    13. Gregor Zoettl, 2021. "Emission trading systems and the optimal technology mix," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 281-327, June.
    14. Qianwen Yu & Zehao Sun & Junyuan Shen & Xia Xu & Xiangnan Chen, 2023. "Interactive Allocation of Water Pollutant Initial Emission Rights in a Basin under Total Amount Control: A Leader-Follower Hierarchical Decision Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-25, January.
    15. Sato, Misato & Rafaty, Ryan & Calel, Raphael & Grubb, Michael, 2022. "Allocation, allocation, allocation! The political economy of the development of the European Union Emissions Trading System," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Lozano, S. & Villa, G. & Brännlund, R., 2009. "Centralised reallocation of emission permits using DEA," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(3), pages 752-760, March.
    17. Frédéric Branger & Misato Sato, 2017. "Solving the clinker dilemma with hybrid output-based allocation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 483-501, February.
    18. Jiasen Sun & Yelin Fu & Xiang Ji & Ray Y. Zhong, 2017. "Allocation of emission permits using DEA-game-theoretic model," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 867-884, October.
    19. Schleich, Joachim & Rogge, Karoline S. & Betz, Regina, 2008. "Incentives for energy efficiency in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S2/2008, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    20. Jiasen Sun & Guo Li, 2022. "Optimizing emission reduction task sharing: technology and performance perspectives," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 316(1), pages 581-602, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate protection; security of supply; emission trading; allocation of emission permits; electricity markets; power plant portfolio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dui:wpaper:0703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Andreas Fritz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwessde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.