Forecasting Life Satisfaction across Adulthood: Benefits of Seeing a Dark Future?
AbstractAnticipating one's future self is a unique human capacity that contributes importantly to adaptation and health throughoutadulthood and old age. Using the adult lifespan sample of the national German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP; N > 10,000, age range 18-96 years), we investigated age-differential stability, correlates, and outcomes of accuracy in anticipation of future life satisfaction across six subsequent 5-year time intervals. As expected, we observed few age differences in current life satisfaction, but stronger age differences in future expectations: Younger adults anticipated improved future life satisfaction, overestimating their actual life satisfaction 5 years later. By contrast, older adults were more pessimistic about the future, generally underestimating their actual life satisfaction after 5 years. Such age differences persisted above and beyond the effects of self-rated health and income. Survival analyses revealed that in later adulthood, underestimating one's life satisfaction 5 years later was related to lower hazard ratios for disability (n = 735 became disabled) and mortality (n = 879 died) across 10 or more years, even after controlling for age, sex, education, income, and self-rated health. Findings suggest that older adults are more likely to underestimate their life satisfaction in the future, and that such underestimation was associated with positive health outcomes.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in its series SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research with number 502.
Length: 45 p.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Subjective well-being; future anticipation; optimism; aging; health; mortality; disability; SOEP;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2012-12-06 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2012-12-06 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2012-12-06 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-FOR-2012-12-06 (Forecasting)
- NEP-NEU-2012-12-06 (Neuroeconomics)
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- Richard E. Lucas & Andrew Clark & Yannis Georgellis & Ed Diener, 2002. "Re-Examining Adaptation and the Setpoint Model of Happiness: Reactions to Changes in Marital Status," DELTA Working Papers 2002-08, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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