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Sieve Inference on Semi-nonparametric Time Series Models

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Abstract

The method of sieves has been widely used in estimating semiparametric and nonparametric models. In this paper, we first provide a general theory on the asymptotic normality of plug-in sieve M estimators of possibly irregular functionals of semi/nonparametric time series models. Next, we establish a surprising result that the asymptotic variances of plug-in sieve M estimators of irregular (i.e., slower than root-T estimable) functionals do not depend on temporal dependence. Nevertheless, ignoring the temporal dependence in small samples may not lead to accurate inference. We then propose an easy-to-compute and more accurate inference procedure based on a "pre-asymptotic" sieve variance estimator that captures temporal dependence. We construct a "pre-asymptotic" Wald statistic using an orthonormal series long run variance (OS-LRV) estimator. For sieve M estimators of both regular (i.e., root-T estimable) and irregular functionals, a scaled "pre-asymptotic" Wald statistic is asymptotically F distributed when the series number of terms in the OS-LRV estimator is held fixed. Simulations indicate that our scaled "pre-asymptotic" Wald test with F critical values has more accurate size in finite samples than the usual Wald test with chi-square critical values.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d18a/d1849.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1849.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Econometrics (January 2014), 178(3): 639-658
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1849

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Related research

Keywords: Weak dependence; Sieve M estimation; Sieve Riesz representor; Irregular functional; Misspecification; Pre-asymptotic variance; Orthogonal series long run variance estimation; F distribution;

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References

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  1. Michael Jansson, 2004. "The Error in Rejection Probability of Simple Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 937-946, 05.
  2. Lu, Zudi & Linton, Oliver, 2007. "Local Linear Fitting Under Near Epoch Dependence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 37-70, February.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2004. "HAC Estimation by Automated Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1470, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory for Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Working Papers 05-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  5. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
  6. Hardle, Wolfgang & LIang, Hua & Gao, Jiti, 2000. "Partially linear models," MPRA Paper 39562, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  7. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
  8. Newey, Whitney K., 1997. "Convergence rates and asymptotic normality for series estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 147-168, July.
  9. Muller, Ulrich K., 2007. "A theory of robust long-run variance estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1331-1352, December.
  10. Sun, Yixiao, 2011. "Robust trend inference with series variance estimator and testing-optimal smoothing parameter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 345-366, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2013. "Sieve Quasi Likelihood Ratio Inference on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1897, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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