End-of-Sample Cointegration Breakdown Tests
AbstractThis paper introduces tests for cointegration breakdown that may occur over a relatively short time period, such as at the end of the sample. The breakdown may be due to a shift in the cointegrating vector or due to a shift in the errors from being I(0) to being I(1). Tests are introduced based on the post-breakdown sum of squared residuals and the post-breakdown sum of squared reverse partial sums of residuals. Critical values are provided using a parametric subsampling method. The regressors in the model are taken to be arbitrary linear combinations of deterministic, stationary, and integrated random variables. The tests are asymptotically valid when the number of observations in the breakdown period, m, is fixed and finite as the total sample size, T+m, goes to infinity. The tests are asymptotically valid under weak conditions. Simulation results indicate that the tests work well in the scenarios considered. Use of the tests is illustrated by testing for interest rate parity breakdown during the Asian financial crisis of 1997.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1404.
Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (2006), 24: 379-394
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Other versions of this item:
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Jae-Young Kim, 2004. "End-of-Sample Cointegration Breakdown Tests," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm344, Yale School of Management.
- Donald Andrews & Jae-Young Kim, 2004. "End-of-Sample Conintegratio Breakdown Tests," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 795, Econometric Society.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-03-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2003-03-25 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2003-03-25 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-IFN-2003-03-25 (International Finance)
- NEP-RMG-2003-03-25 (Risk Management)
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- Pierre Siklos, 2006. "What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation: Some US Evidence," Working Papers eg0049, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
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