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Des outils pour la simulation économique : Jan Tinbergen et l’émergence des modèles structurels (1935-1940)

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  • Eric CHANCELLIER

    (ESG, Paris)

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    Abstract

    Nous proposons d'analyser l'un des premiers outils de simulation en économie au travers les travaux de Tinbergen entre 1935 et 1940 au sein de la Société des Nations. Précisément, Tinbergen développe l'utilisation des modèles structurels destinés à la simulation économique. Nous constaterons dans une première partie la volonté de Tinbergen de simuler le mouvement économique en testant statistiquement les théories économiques des cycles. Ainsi, Tinbergen est à la recherche d'un système de fonctions dont la structure est basée sur des théories économiques. Ce système est considéré par Tinbergen comme faisant office de machine permettant alors un second niveau de simulation développée dans la deuxième partie de l'article. Précisément, la machine ainsi constituée permet des simulations de scénarios de politiques économiques. Tinbergen élabore une machine expérimentale qui lui permet de considérer à la fois des scénarios de politiques conjoncturelles et structurelles.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2007033.

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    Length: 26
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2007033

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    Related research

    Keywords: Cycles économiques; simulation économique; histoire de la modélisation;

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    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
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