Crises and growth : a Latin American perspective
AbstractIn this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region's GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America's future will be one of "No crises and very modest growth".
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones in its series Working Papers in Economic History with number wp07-07.
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Campus de Getafe, C/ Madrid, 126, 28903 GETAFE (MADRID)
Phone: +34-91 624 9809
Fax: +34-91 624 9574
Web page: http://www.uc3m.es/uc3m/dpto/HISEC/01presentacion.html
More information through EDIRC
Growth; Current account deficits; Sudden stops; Crises; Institutions; Latin America preindustrial;
Other versions of this item:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2007-03-24 (Development)
- NEP-LAM-2007-03-24 (Central & South America)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2007. "When Did Latin America Fall Behind?," NBER Chapters, in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 15-58 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2009.
"Sequencing of reforms, financial globalization, and macroeconomic vulnerability,"
in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Sequencing of Reforms, Financial Globalization, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability," NBER Working Papers 14384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luis Bertola & Maria Camou & Silvana Maubrigades & Natalia Melgar, 2008. "Human development and inequality in the 20th Century : the Mercosur countries in a comparative perspective," Working Papers in Economic History wp08-06, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.
- José De Gregorio, 2007. "Algunas Reflexiones sobre el Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 20, Central Bank of Chile.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 14034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ramírez, Carlos D., 2009. "Bank fragility, "money under the mattress", and long-run growth: US evidence from the "perfect" Panic of 1893," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2185-2198, December.
- José María Fanelli, 2009. "Economic Policy out of the Corridor. Reflections on the Global Crisis and the Latin American Experience," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(53-54), pages 73-105, January -.
- Roberto Meurer, 2011. "Measuring the impact of financial flows on macroeconomic variables: the case of Brazil after the 2008 crisis," Working Papers 0117, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 2009. "Sequencing of reforms, financial globalization, and macroeconomic vulnerability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 131-148, June.
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 13577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.