Crises and growth : a Latin American perspective
AbstractIn this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region's GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America's future will be one of "No crises and very modest growth".
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones in its series Working Papers in Economic History with number wp07-07.
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
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Growth; Current account deficits; Sudden stops; Crises; Institutions; Latin America preindustrial;
Other versions of this item:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2007-03-24 (Development)
- NEP-LAM-2007-03-24 (Central & South America)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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