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Towards a History Friendly Model of Innovation, Market Structure and Regulation in the Dynamics of the Pharmaceutical Industry: the Age of Random Screening

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Abstract

In this paper we present a model of the long term dynamics of market structure and innovation in the pharmaceutical industry in a history friendly way. Our results show a strong increase in concentration in each therapeutic area, but a rather low level of concentration in the overall market. Innovative firms continue to maintain a key role. Both demand growth and increase in technological opportunities have similar effects on the role of innovative firms, exploration and total quality, but a contrasting effects on concentration (positive for demand growth, and less so for technological opportunities). We have also explored different situations of patent protection. As expected, an increase in patent protection increase concentration but decreases exploration, while the opposite holds for no patent protection. Interestingly enough, an increase in patent protection is not able to countervail the negative effects of no growth in demand as far as quality and exploratory activities are concerned. Finally, an increase in the cost of research or in the stringency of approval procedures have quite different effects on concentration, exploration and quality: the first increases concentration and reduces quality, the second does not affect concentration, but affects negatively exploration as well as quality.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.unibocconi.it/pub/RePEc/cri/papers/wp124.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy in its series KITeS Working Papers with number 124.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: May 2000
Date of revision: Jan 2001
Handle: RePEc:cri:cespri:wp124

Note: A previous version of this model was presented at the Conference in Honour of Paul David: "New Frontiers in the Economics of Innovation and New Technologies", Turin, May 2000.
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Related research

Keywords: Industrial dynamics; Market structure; Innovation; Patents; Pharmaceutical industry;

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References

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  1. Merges, Robert P. & Nelson, Richard R., 1994. "On limiting or encouraging rivalry in technical progress: The effect of patent scope decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-24, September.
  2. Catherine Matraves, 1998. "Market Structure, R&D and Advertising in the Pharmaceutical Industry," CIG Working Papers FS IV 98-17, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  3. Malerba, Franco, et al, 1999. "'History-Friendly' Models of Industry Evolution: The Computer Industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 3-40, March.
  4. Teece, David J., 1986. "Profiting from technological innovation: Implications for integration, collaboration, licensing and public policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 285-305, December.
  5. Henderson, Rebecca. & Cockburn, Iain., 1994. "Measuring competence? : exploring firm effects in pharmaceutical research," Working papers 3712-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. Arora, Ashish & Gambardella, Alfonso, 1994. "The changing technology of technological change: general and abstract knowledge and the division of innovative labour," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 523-532, September.
  7. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dosi, Giovanni & Lippi, Marco & Pammolli, Fabio & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2001. "Innovation and corporate growth in the evolution of the drug industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1161-1187, July.
  8. Henderson, Rebecca., 1994. "The evolution of integrative capability : innovation in cardiovascular drug discovery," Working papers 3711-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  9. Arora, Ashish & Gambardella, Alfonso, 1990. "Complementarity and External Linkages: The Strategies of the Large Firms in Biotechnology," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 361-79, June.
  10. Gambardella, Alfonso & Orsenigo, Luigi & Pammolli, Fabio, 2000. "Global Competitiveness in Pharmaceuticals: A European Perspective," MPRA Paper 15965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Malerba, Franco & Nelson, Richard & Orsenigo, Luigi & Winter, Sidney, 2001. "Competition and industrial policies in a 'history friendly' model of the evolution of the computer industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 635-664, April.
  12. Pisano, Gary P., 1991. "The governance of innovation: Vertical integration and collaborative arrangements in the biotechnology industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 237-249, June.
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