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Technological regimes and demand structure in the evolution of the pharmaceutical industry

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  • Christian Garavaglia
  • Franco Malerba

    ()

  • Luigi Orsenigo
  • Michele Pezzoni

Abstract

This paper examines how the nature of the technological regime governing innovative activities and the structure of demand interact in determining market structure, with specific reference to the pharmaceutical industry. The key question concerns the observation that—despite high degrees of R&D and marketing-intensity—concentration has been consistently low during the whole evolution of the industry. Standard explanations of this phenomenon refer to the random nature of the innovative process, the patterns of imitation, and the fragmented nature of the market into multiple, independent submarkets. We delve deeper into this issue by using an improved version of our previous “history-friendly” model of the evolution of pharmaceuticals. Thus, we explore the way in which changes in the technological regime and/or in the structure of demand may generate or not substantially higher degrees of concentration. The main results are that, while technological regimes remain fundamental determinants of the patterns of innovation, the demand structure plays a crucial role in preventing the emergence of concentration through a partially endogenous process of discovery of new submarkets. However, it is not simply market fragmentation as such that produces this result, but rather the entity of the “prize” that innovators can gain relative to the overall size of the market. Further, the model shows that emerging industry leaders are innovative early entrants in large submarkets. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 677-709

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:22:y:2012:i:4:p:677-709

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Related research

Keywords: Industrial dynamics; Innovation; Market structure; Pharmaceuticals; History-friendly model; C63; L10; L65; O30;

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References

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  1. Ron Adner & Daniel Levinthal, 2001. "Demand Heterogeneity and Technology Evolution: Implications for Product and Process Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(5), pages 611-628, May.
  2. Franco Malerba & Richard Nelson & Luigi Orsenigo & Sidney Winter, 2006. "Vertical Integration and Dis-integration of Computer Firms: A History Friendly Model of the Co-evolution of the Computer and Semiconductor Industries," KITeS Working Papers 191, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Dec 2006.
  3. Matraves, Catherine, 1999. "Market Structure, R&D and Advertising in the Pharmaceutical Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 169-94, June.
  4. Peter Thompson & Steven Klepper, 2003. "Submarkets and the Evolution of Market Structure," Working Papers 0303, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
  5. Jean-Michel Dalle, 1997. "Heterogeneity vs. externalities in technological competition: A tale of possible technological landscapes," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 395-413.
  6. Franco Malerba & Richard Nelson & Luigi Orsenigo, 2003. "Demand, innovation and the dynamics of market structure: the role of experimental users and diverse preferences," KITeS Working Papers 135, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jan 2003.
  7. Franco Malerba & Luigi Orsenigo, 2002. "Innovation and market structure in the dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry and biotechnology: towards a history-friendly model," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 667-703, August.
  8. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanni Dosi & Marco Lippi & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2001. "Innovation and Corporate Growth in the Evolution of the Drug Industry," LEM Papers Series 2001/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  9. Guido Buenstorf & Steven Klepper, 2010. "Submarket dynamics and innovation: the case of the US tire industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 1563-1587, October.
  10. Winter, Sidney G., 1984. "Schumpeterian competition in alternative technological regimes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(3-4), pages 287-320.
  11. Klepper, Steven, 1997. "Industry Life Cycles," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 145-81.
  12. Christian Garavaglia & Franco Malerba & Luigi Orsenigo & Michele Pezzoni, 2010. "A History-Friendly Model of the Evolution of the Pharmaceutical Industry: Technological Regimes and Demand Structure," KITeS Working Papers 036, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2010.
  13. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March.
  14. Garavaglia, Christian, 2010. "Modelling industrial dynamics with "History-friendly" simulations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 258-275, November.
  15. Comanor, William S, 1986. "The Political Economy of the Pharmaceutical Industry," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 1178-1217, September.
  16. Pavitt, Keith, 1984. "Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 343-373, December.
  17. Breschi, Stefano & Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 2000. "Technological Regimes and Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 388-410, April.
  18. repec:rje:randje:v:37:y:2006:i:4:p:861-886 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Malerba, Franco, et al, 1999. "'History-Friendly' Models of Industry Evolution: The Computer Industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 3-40, March.
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