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Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?

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Author Info
Bofinger, Peter
Abstract

The debate on EMU has been very influenced by the traditional theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs). The paper shows that this theory is not an ideal yardstick for an assessment of EMU. Its assumptions are not very realistic and its focus on asymmetric real shocks is much too narrow. In addition, observed past real exchange rate changes are not a good predictor of future real shocks in the European Union (EU). In general, the OCA approach is heavily biased towards very small currency areas. Because of these shortcomings the paper develops a monetary approach to the theory of OCAs. In this concept the choice between a monetary union and independent national currency areas is analysed from the perspective of monetary policy efficiency. It can be shown that EMU is superior to national currency areas in terms of credibility, the response to asymmetric monetary shocks and the effectiveness of monetary targets and instruments.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 915.

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Date of creation: Feb 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:915

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Related research
Keywords: European Monetary Integration European Monetary Union Optimum Currency Areas

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

Cited by:
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  1. Julius Horvath, 2004. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," Macroeconomics 0401014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Thomas D. Willett, 2001. "The OCA Approach to Exchange Rate Regimes: A Perspective on Recent Developments," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-04, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jean Pisany-Ferry, 1994. "Union monetaire et convergence : qu'avons nous appris ?," Working Papers 1994-14, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hans Grüner & Carsten Hefeker, 1996. "Bank cooperation and banking policy in a monetary union: A political-economy perspective on EMU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 183-198, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Franz Pauer, 1996. "Will asymetric shocks pose a serious problem in EMU?," Working Papers 23, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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