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Fiscal Policy and Labor Markets at Times of Public Debt

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  • Bertola, Giuseppe

Abstract

This paper explores the empirical relevance of public debt accumulation for labor market institutions and outcomes. In theory, since debt service obligations act as a constraint on policy choices, past debt accumulation and current interest rates should influence reform incentives and labor market performance. Empirically, employment and unemployment rates are strongly associated with debt stock and debt service indicators over five-year periods along 1980-2000 public debt and interest-rate stabilization cycles. Significant and sensible relationships are apparent between debt service, interacted with country-specific policy indicators, and labor market policy changes. While only further data and research may disentangle the force that jointly shape public finance and labor market developments, past evidence suggests that aggregate fiscal policy reactions to the 2008-09 crisis will have persistent labor market implications.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8037.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8037

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Related research

Keywords: Debt sustainability; Inequality; Labor market regulation;

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References

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  1. Sebastian Hauptmeier & Martin Heipertz & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Expenditure Reform in Industrialised Countries: A Case-Study Approach," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 293-342, 09.
  2. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Elisa Borghi & Alessandro Missale, 2011. "Public Investment under Fiscal Constraints," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 11-42, 03.
  3. Stéphanie Guichard & Mike Kennedy & Eckhard Wurzel & Christophe André, 2007. "What Promotes Fiscal Consolidation: OECD Country Experiences," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 553, OECD Publishing.
  4. Missale, Alessandro, 1999. "Public Debt Management," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290858.
  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Lo Prete, Anna, 2010. "Whence Policy? Government Policies, Finance, and Economic Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 7820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2009. "Fiscal adjustments: do labor and product market institutions matter?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 389-411, June.
  7. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Andrew Scott, 2008. "Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 393-442 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 47-104, 04.
  9. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2007. "Reforms, Exchange Rates and Monetary Commitment: A Panel Analysis for OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 369-388, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Holden, Steinar & Sparrman, Victoria, 2011. "Do Government Purchases Affect Unemployment?," Memorandum 17/2011, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

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