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Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment

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  • Tschernig, Rolf J.V.
  • Zimmermann, Klaus F

Abstract

The non-stationarity of many macroeconomic time series has lead to an increased demand for economic models that are able to generate fragile equilibria. For instance, in this literature the natural unemployment rate is allowed to shift over time depending on past unemployment. Actually, many European unemployment series seem to exhibit a unit root or persistence. This view is questioned in the paper using German data on unemployment. A new class of time-series models, the fractionally integrated ARMA model, that allows the difference parameter to take real values, enables the researcher to separate long memory and short memory in the data. It is shown that using this approach the unit root hypothesis is rejected but unemployment exhibits long memory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 739.

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Date of creation: Nov 1992
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:739

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Related research

Keywords: Fractional Integration; Hysteresis; Long Memory; Persistence; Unemployment;

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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Modelling Structural Breaks In The Us, Uk And Japanese Unemployment Rates," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-10, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  2. Mohamed Boutahar & Imene Mootamri & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "A fractionally integrated exponential STAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Working Papers halshs-00340831, HAL.
  3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
  4. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
  5. Mohamed Boutahar & Imene Mootamri & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2007. "An exponential FISTAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Working Papers halshs-00353836, HAL.
  6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha, 2013. "Testing Unemployment Theories: A Multivariate Long Memory Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1345, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio, . "New Revelations about Unemployment Persistence in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 10/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  8. Peijie Wang, 2003. "Cycles and Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 22-42.

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