Making Sense of the Soviet Trade Shock in Eastern Europe: A Framework and Some Estimates
AbstractEast European countries have experienced sharp declines in real GDP since 1990. One of the reasons for this decline is the Soviet trade shock caused by the collapse of the CMEA and of traditional export markets in the Soviet Union. This paper is an attempt to quantify the magnitude of this external shock. A conceptual framework is developed to show that the shock has three distinct elements: (a) a terms-of-trade deterioration; (b) a market-loss effect; and (c) a removal-of-import-subsidy effect. Combining these three effects and adding Keynesian multiplier effects, the conclusion is that the Soviet trade shock accounts for all of the decline in Hungarian GDP, about 60% of the decline in Czechoslovakia, and between one-quarter and one-third of the decline in Poland.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 705.
Date of creation: Jul 1992
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Dani Rodrik, 1992. "Making Sense of the Soviet Trade Shock in Eastern Europe: A Framework and Some Estimates," NBER Working Papers 4112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
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