IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/14252.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Monetary Policy Shaped the Housing Boom

Author

Listed:
  • Schnabl, Philipp
  • Savov, Alexi

Abstract

Between 2003 and 2006, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 4.25%. Yet it was precisely during this period that the housing boom accelerated, fueled by rapid growth in mortgage lending. There is deep disagreement about how, or even if, monetary policy impacted the boom. Using heterogeneity in banks' exposures to the deposits channel of monetary policy, we show that Fed tightening induced a large reduction in banks' deposit funding, leading them to contract new on-balance-sheet lending for home purchases by 26%. However, an unprecedented expansion in privately-securitized loans, led by nonbanks, largely offset this contraction. Since privately-securitized loans are neither GSE-insured nor deposit-funded, they are run-prone, which made the mortgage market fragile. Consistent with our theory, the re-emergence of privately-securitized mortgages has closely tracked the recent increase in rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Schnabl, Philipp & Savov, Alexi, 2019. "How Monetary Policy Shaped the Housing Boom," CEPR Discussion Papers 14252, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14252
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP14252
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buchak, Greg & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2018. "Fintech, regulatory arbitrage, and the rise of shadow banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 453-483.
    2. Hanson, Samuel G. & Shleifer, Andrei & Stein, Jeremy C. & Vishny, Robert W., 2015. "Banks as patient fixed-income investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 449-469.
    3. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    4. Acharya, Viral V. & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2013. "Securitization without risk transfer," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 515-536.
    5. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    6. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    7. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2016. "Editor's Choice Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1635-1670.
    8. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    10. Charles R. Bean & Matthias Paustian & Adrian Penalver & Tim Taylor, 2010. "Monetary policy after the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-328.
    11. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    12. John B. Taylor, 2010. "Commentary: monetary policy after the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 337-348.
    13. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
    14. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    15. Kairong Xiao, 2018. "Monetary Transmission through Shadow Banks," 2018 Meeting Papers 616, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2010. "Regulating the Shadow Banking System," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 261-312.
    17. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. João Granja & Christian Leuz & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2022. "Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1259-1324, April.
    2. Musa BAYIR, 2020. "The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Transmission MechanismAbstract: Housing markets have an essential role in the process leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. The problems in the housing mark," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(45).
    3. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2019. "How Monetary Policy Shaped the Housing Boom," NBER Working Papers 25649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Drechsler, Itamar & Savov, Alexi & Schnabl, Philipp, 2022. "How monetary policy shaped the housing boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 992-1021.
    3. Kuncl, Martin, 2019. "Securitization under asymmetric information over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 237-256.
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2021. "Shadow Banking and the Four Pillars of Traditional Financial Intermediation [Securitization without Risk Transfer]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2622-2653.
    5. Pierri, Nicola & Timmer, Yannick, 2022. "The importance of technology in banking during a crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 88-104.
    6. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Loutskina, Elena, 2016. "Mortgage companies and regulatory arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 328-351.
    7. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
    8. Neuhann, Daniel, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of secondary market trading," ESRB Working Paper Series 25, European Systemic Risk Board.
    9. Wei, Xin & Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2022. "Shadow banking and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Greg Buchak & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2018. "Beyond the Balance Sheet Model of Banking: Implications for Bank Regulation and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 25149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    12. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Feng Min & Fenghua Wen & Jiayu Xu & Nan Wu, 2023. "Credit supply, house prices, and financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2088-2108, April.
    14. Hasman, Augusto & Samartín, Margarita, 2022. "Leaving the darkness: The emergence of shadow banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    16. Beck, Thorsten & Chen, Tao & Lin, Chen & Song, Frank M., 2016. "Financial innovation: The bright and the dark sides," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-51.
    17. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2013. "A Model of Shadow Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1331-1363, August.
    18. Unger, Robert, 2016. "Traditional banks, shadow banks and the US credit boom: Credit origination versus financing," Discussion Papers 11/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2018. "Securitization and business cycle: an agent-based perspective," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1091-1121.
    20. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:429-513 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Luck, Stephan & Schempp, Paul, 2023. "Inefficient liquidity creation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Mortgage lending; Banks; Securitization; Deposits; Private- label securitization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.