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Causality in econometric modeling. From theory to structural causal modeling

Author

Listed:
  • MOUCHART Michel,

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

  • ORSI Renzo,

    (University of Bologna)

  • WUNSCH Guillaume,

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

This paper examines different approaches for assessing causality as typically followed in econometrics and proposes a constructive perspective for improving statistical models elaborated in view of causal analysis. Without attempting to be exhaustive, this paper examines some of these approaches. Traditional structural modeling is first discussed. A distinction is then drawn between model-based and design-based approaches. Some more recent developments are examined next, namely history-friendly simulation and information-theory based approaches. Finally, in a constructive perspective, structural causal modeling (SCM) is presented, based on the concepts of mechanism and sub-mechanisms, and of recursive decomposition of the joint distribution of variables. This modeling strategy endeavors at representing the structure of the underlying data generating process. It operationalizes the concept of causation through the ordering and role-function of the variables in each of the intelligible sub-mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • MOUCHART Michel, & ORSI Renzo, & WUNSCH Guillaume,, 2020. "Causality in econometric modeling. From theory to structural causal modeling," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2020003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2020003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural modeling; exogeneity; causality; model-based and design-based approaches; recursive decomposition; history-friendly simulation; transfer entropy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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