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Política fiscal subnacional y ciclos económicos regionales: análisis para el caso de los departamentos en Colombia, 2000-2016

Author

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  • Raúl-Alberto Chamorro-Narváez
  • Andrés-Camilo Santos-Ospina
  • Andrés-Felipe Urrea-Bermúdez

Abstract

Resumen: En este documento se analiza la sensibilidad de un conjunto de variables fiscales con respecto a la brecha del PIB departamental, medida como la diferencia entre el crecimiento observado y su crecimiento de largo plazo. Por medio de un modelo de datos panel con efectos fijos y temporales se encontró que tanto los ingresos totales como las transferencias de las gobernaciones tendieron a ser procíclicas frente a la brecha del PIB durante el periodo 2000-2016, en contravía de la expectativa empírica. Por su parte, el recaudo propio y los gastos totales evidenciaron aciclicidad. Estos resultados sugieren limitaciones de la política fiscal departamental en Colombia para atenuar los efectos derivados de los ciclos económicos; aspecto deseable para lograr una estabilidad en la provisión de bienes y servicios públicos a su cargo.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl-Alberto Chamorro-Narváez & Andrés-Camilo Santos-Ospina & Andrés-Felipe Urrea-Bermúdez, 2020. "Política fiscal subnacional y ciclos económicos regionales: análisis para el caso de los departamentos en Colombia, 2000-2016," Ensayos de Economía 19136, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000418:019136
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    política fiscal subnacional; ciclos económicos; PIB departamental; transferencias intergubernamentales.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H39 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Other
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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