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Emigration and Tax Revenue

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  • Yuanyuan Gu
  • Jhorland Ayala-García

Abstract

According to the World Migration Report 2020, the number of international migrants increased from 84 million in 1970 to 272 million in 2019, accounting for 3.5% of the world’s population. This paper investigates the aggregated effect of emigration on the tax revenue of sending countries with a focus on developing nations. Using a gravity approach, we construct a time-varying exogenous instrument out of geographic time-invariant dyadic characteristics that allow us to estimate the predicted emigration rate for every country. Then, we follow an instrumental variable approach where we use our predicted emigration rate as an instrument of the observed migration rate. The results show that the predicted emigration rate is a good instrument of the current emigration rate for developing countries, and that there is a positive aggregated effect of emigration on tax revenue of sending countries. The results vary depending on the type of tax: emigration increases goods and services tax revenue, but it decreases income, profit, and capital gains tax revenue. **** RESUMEN: Según el World Migration Report de 2020, el número de migrantes internacionales aumentó de 84 millones en 1970 a 272 millones en 2019, lo que representa el 3,5 % de la población mundial. Este documento investiga el efecto agregado de la emigración en los ingresos fiscales de los países de origen haciendo énfasis en países en vía de desarrollo. Usando un modelo de gravedad, construimos un instrumento exógeno que varía en el tiempo a partir de características diádicas geográficas invariantes en el tiempo, los cuales nos permiten estimar la tasa de emigración predicha para cada país. Luego utilizamos la tasa de emigración predicha como un instrumento de la tasa de migración observada. Los resultados muestran que la tasa de emigración pronosticada es un buen instrumento de la tasa de emigración de los países en desarrollo, y que existe un efecto agregado positivo de la emigración sobre los ingresos fiscales de los países de origen. Los resultados varían según el tipo de impuesto: la emigración aumenta los ingresos fiscales por impuestos sobre bienes y servicios, pero disminuye los ingresos por impuestos sobre la renta, las ganancias y las ganancias de capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanyuan Gu & Jhorland Ayala-García, 2022. "Emigration and Tax Revenue," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 20297, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000102:020297
    DOI: 10.32468/dtseru.312
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emigration; Tax Revenue; Developing Countries; Gravity; emigración; ingresos fiscales; países en desarrollo; gravedad;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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