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The Fan Chart: The Technical Details Of The New Implementation

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  • Juan Manuel Julio

Abstract

. Our current implementation of the Fan Chart follows the originalBritton Fisher and Whitley [2] and Blix and Sellin [1] proposal in which theinputs enter at the fourth and ninth quarters and are distributed within theforecasting horizon according to pre established weights. This procedure doesnot allow enough °exibility to control the shape of the distribution at theshorter end of the horizon when more reliable information is available. Onthe other hand, no published material presents the details of the Fan Chartcomputation. In this note all the technical details of the new implementationare described. This implementation provides more °exibility than the previousone since it permits the inputs to be entered on a quarterly basis instead ofon a yearly basis. A Visual Basic for Excel program is available.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio, 2007. "The Fan Chart: The Technical Details Of The New Implementation," Borradores de Economia 4294, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004294
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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra468.pdf
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    1. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementacion, Uso e Interpretación del FAN CHART," Borradores de Economia 2815, Banco de la Republica.
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    Cited by:

    1. -, 2010. "Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2990 edited by Eclac.
    2. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Leonardo Villar-Gómez & Javier Gómez & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Wilmar Cabrera & Hernando Vargas, 2023. "The monetary and macroprudential policy framework in Colombia in the last 30 years: lessons learnt and challenges for the future," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 87-112, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fan Chart; Forecasting Distribution; Balance of Risks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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