On the Selection of Leading Economic Indicators for China
AbstractLeading indicators represent variables that tend to precede and predict coincident indicators of general economic activity, which as a multivariate concept, can be measured with the help of metrics on employment, production, total income and sales in real (inflation adjusted) terms. In many countries, composite indexes of leading economic indicators (LEI) are used to help predict short-term cyclical fluctuations of the economy in conjunction with composite indexes of coincident economic indicators (CEI). They also serve to analyze short-term macroeconomic dynamics of the business cycle. This paper reviews the available monthly and quarterly leading indicators for China, and develops a composite index following the indicators approach of The Conference Board, which publishes the U.S. LEI. Predicting turning points in the business cycle is extremely difficult, but the long history of research on leading indicators provides empirical evidence that LEIs can help in this task. This paper discusses our selection of leading indicators of the Chinese economy over 1986-2009. We evaluate our selection of leading indicators against the chronology of business and growth cycles.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Conference Board, Economics Program in its series Economics Program Working Papers with number 10-02.
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 845 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10022-6679
Phone: (212) 759-0900
Fax: (212) 980-7014
Web page: http://www.conference-board.org/publications/publicationlistall.cfm?sort=type#EconomicWorkingPaper
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-06-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-06-18 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-06-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2010-06-18 (Transition Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (A Ozyildirim).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.