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CREDIT RISK MODELS IV: UNDERSTANDING AND PRICING CDOs

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  • Abel Elizalde

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    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

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    Abstract

    Some investors in the Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) market have been publicly accused of not fully understanding the risks and dynamics of these products. They won't have an excuse any more. This report explains the mechanics of CDOs: their implied cash flows, the variables affecting those cash flows, their pricing, the sensitivity of CDO price to those variables, the functioning of the markets where they are traded, their different types, the conventions used for trading CDOs,...We built our description of CDOs pricing upon the Vasicek asymptotic single factor model because of its simplicity and the insights it provides regarding the pricing of CDOs. Additionally, we provide an extensive and updated review of the literature which extends the Vasicek model by relaxing its, somehow restrictive, assumptions in order to build more realistic and, as a consequence, more complicated CDO princing models.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2006_0608.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2006_0608

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    1. Guenter Franke & Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2005. "Default Risk Sharing Between Banks and Markets: The Contribution of Collateralized Debt Obligations," NBER Working Papers 11741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael S. Gibson, 2004. "Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    4. Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2003. "Loan Pricing Under Basel Capital Requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 3917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
    7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    8. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    9. Thomas C. Wilson, 1998. "Portfolio credit risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 71-82.
    10. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    11. Daniel Covitz & Song Han, 2004. "An empirical analysis of bond recovery rates: exploring a structural view of default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jeffery D Amato & Jacob Gyntelberg, 2005. "CDS index tranches and the pricing of credit risk correlations," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    13. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
    14. Elizalde, Abel & Repullo, Rafael, 2004. "Economic and Regulatory Capital: What is the Difference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    16. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "The role of ratings in structured finance: issues and implications," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 23, July.
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