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A Consistent Test for the Martingale Difference Hypothesis

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Author Info

  • Manuel A. Dominguez
  • Ignacio N. Lobato

    ()
    (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))

Abstract

This paper considers testing that an economic time series follows a martingale difference process. The martingale difference hypothesis has been typically tested using information contained in the second moments of a process, that is, using test statistics based on the sample autocovariances or in the periodograms. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent since they just test necessary conditions of the null hypothesis. In this paper we consider tests that are consistent against all fixed alternatives and against Pitman's local alternatives. Since the asymptotic distributions of the tests statistics depend on the data generating process, the tests are implemented using a modification of the wild bootstrap procedure. The paper justifies theoretically the proposed tests and examines their finite sample behavior by means of Monte Carlo experiments. In addition we include an application to exchange rate data.

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File URL: http://ftp.itam.mx/pub/academico/inves/lobato/01-01.pdf
File Function: First version, 2001
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM in its series Working Papers with number 0101.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cie:wpaper:0101

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Related research

Keywords: nonlinear dependence; nonparametric; correlation; bootstrap;

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References

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  1. E. Guerre & Pascal Lavergne, 2000. "Minimax Rates for Nonparametric Specification Testing in Regression Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0644, Econometric Society.
  2. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1996. "A Conditional Kolmogorov Test," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1111R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June.
  4. Bierens, H.J., 1989. "A consistent conditional moment test of functional form," Serie Research Memoranda 0064, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  5. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1997. "ARCH and Bilinearity as Competing Models for Nonlinear Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 43-50, January.
  6. Bierens, H.J. & Ploberger, W., 1995. "Asymptotic theory of integrated conditional moment tests," Discussion Paper 1995-124, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  8. de Jong, Robert M., 1996. "The Bierens test under data dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 1-32.
  9. Brooks, Chris & Hinich, Melvin J., 1999. "Cross-correlations and cross-bicorrelations in Sterling exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 385-404, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2005. "On the Asymptotic Power Properties of Specification Tests for Dynamic Parametric Regressions," Faculty Working Papers 07/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  2. Park, Joon Y. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2004. "A Test of the Martingale Hypothesis," Working Papers 2004-11, Rice University, Department of Economics.
  3. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Mayoral, Silvia, 2010. "Data-driven smooth tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 1983-1998, August.
  4. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2006. "Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 151-185, September.
  5. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2010. "The Integrated Instrumental Variables Estimator: Exploiting Nonlinearities for Identification of Linear Models," Caepr Working Papers 2010-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  6. Chihwa Kao & Yongmiao Hong, 2004. "Detecting Neglected Nonlinearity in Dynamic Panel Data with Time-Varying Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 753, Econometric Society.
  7. George Kapetanios & Andrew P. Blake, 2007. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis Using Neural Network Approximations," Working Papers 601, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  8. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Jacho-Chávez, David T., 2010. "Approximating the critical values of Cramér-von Mises tests in general parametric conditional specifications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 625-636, March.

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