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A New Test of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis

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  • Kuan Chung-Ming

    ()
    (Academia Sinica)

  • Lee Wei-Ming

    ()
    (National Chung-Cheng University)

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new class of tests for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the moment conditions derived by Bierens (1982). In contrast with the existing consistent tests, the proposed test has a standard limiting distribution and is easy to implement. Comparing with many commonly used autocorrelation- and spectrum-based tests, it has better power against a larger class of alternatives that may be serially correlated or uncorrelated. Moreover, this test does not rely on the assumption of conditional homoskedasticity and requires a weaker moment condition. Our simulations confirm that the proposed test is powerful against various linear and nonlinear alternatives and is quite robust to the failure of higher-order moments. Our empirical study on exchange rate returns also shows that the conclusion resulted from the proposed test is different from that of the conventional tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1-26

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:8:y:2004:i:4:n:1

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Cited by:
  1. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
  2. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Pyun, Chong Soo & Kim, Daewon, 2012. "Are exchange rate movements predictable in Asia-Pacific markets? Evidence of random walk and martingale difference processes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 221-231.
  3. J. Carlos Escanciano & Carlos Velasco, 2003. "Generalized Spectral Tests For The Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws035212, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  4. Friedrich Geiecke & Mark Trede, 2010. "A Direct Test of Rational Bubbles," CQE Working Papers 1310, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
  6. Yi-Ting Chen & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2003. "A Generalized Jarque-Bera Test of Conditional Normality," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 03-A003, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
  7. Park, Joon Y. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2004. "A Test of the Martingale Hypothesis," Working Papers 2004-11, Rice University, Department of Economics.

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