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Das grüne Paradoxon: Warum man das Angebot bei der Klimapolitik nicht vergessen darf

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

Despite its efforts and obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU has not succeeded in even making a dent in the rapidly rising trend of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions. If anything, the trend has accelerated in recent years. In his Thünen Lecture given to the German Economic Association in October 2007, the author criticizes the attempt to slow down global warming by means of unilaterally curtailing the demand for fossil fuels and develops an intertemporal supply side approach to the economics of global warming. He advances the hypothesis that the ineffectiveness of demand policies results from anticipation effects on the part of the owners of fossil fuel resources. In addition to the threat of potential ousting by domestic rivals, the threat of falling energy prices (against a modified Hotelling trend) due to greening public policies and increasing participation in world wide emissions trading systems gives resource owners the incentive to speedup extraction. Feasible policy measures that do not encounter such problematic anticipation effects include the rapid creation of a complete worldwide monopsony for fossil fuels that can dictate quantities rather than having to rely on price signals. Moreover, source taxes on the financial returns of resource owners will provide additional conservation motives; technical measures including afforestation and sequestration may also be a way to reduce the speed of global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Das grüne Paradoxon: Warum man das Angebot bei der Klimapolitik nicht vergessen darf," ifo Working Paper Series 54, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Long, Ngo Van & Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1985. "Surprise Price Shifts, Tax Changes and the Supply Behaviour of Resource Extracting Firms," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(45), pages 278-289, December.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2007. "Public Policies against Global Warming," NBER Working Papers 13454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2007. "Pareto Optimality in the Extraction of Fossil Fuels and the Greenhouse Effect: A Note," NBER Working Papers 13453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1974. "The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 12, pages 257-276, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Joseph Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 123-137.
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    Cited by:

    1. Itzenplitz, Anja & Seifferth-Schmidt, Nicole, 2010. "Warum Klimakonferenzen scheitern, aber dennoch zum Wohl des Weltklimas kooperiert wird," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 67, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    2. Ulrich Blum & Jiarui Zhong, 2021. "The Loss of Raw Material Criticality: Implications of the Collapse of Saudi Arabian Oil Exports," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(6), pages 362-370, November.
    3. Arne Höltl & Cathy Macharis & Klaas De Brucker, 2017. "Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Edenhofer Ottmar & Kalkuhl Matthias & Ockenfels Axel, 2020. "Das Klimaschutzprogramm der Bundesregierung: Eine Wende der deutschen Klimapolitik?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 4-18, April.
    5. Schröer, Sebastian & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2009. "Die deutschen Ausbauziele für erneuerbare Energien: Eine Effizienzanalyse," HWWI Research Papers 1-27, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    6. Willi Koll, 2022. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Stabilität im klimapolitischen Wandel [Macroeconomic Stability in the Climate Policy Transition]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(4), pages 288-293, April.
    7. Svetlana Gercheva, 2020. "Tax or Trade: Community Energy Taxation in the Context of Climate Neutrality," Izvestia Journal of the Union of Scientists - Varna. Economic Sciences Series, Union of Scientists - Varna, Economic Sciences Section, vol. 9(1), pages 168-178, April.
    8. Adrian Amelung, 2016. "Das "Paris-Agreement": Durchbruch der Top-Down-Klimaschutzverhandlungen im Kreise der Vereinten Nationen," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2016, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    9. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2015. "The Green Paradox: A Supply-side View of the Climate Problem," CESifo Working Paper Series 5385, CESifo.
    10. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Christoph M. & aus dem Moore, Nils, 2012. "Marktwirtschaftliche Energiewende: Ein Wettbewerbsrahmen für die Stromversorgung mit alternativen Technologien. Ein Projekt im Auftrag der Initiative Neue Soziale Marktwirtschaft," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69954.
    11. Heike Auerswald & Kai A. Konrad & Marcel Thum, 2011. "Uncertain climate results and a rational climate policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(18), pages 40-43, October.
    12. Zhen Yu & Weidong Li & Hongyan Duan, 2023. "New Energy Technology Innovation and Industry Carbon Emission Reduction Based on the Perspective of Unbalanced Regional Economic Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Hernandez, Ariel, 2021. "SDG-aligned futures and the governance of the transformation to sustainability reconsidering governance perspectives on the futures we aspire to," IDOS Discussion Papers 30/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    14. Christoph Böhringer, 2010. "1990 bis 2010: Eine Bestandsaufnahme von zwei Jahrzehnten europäischer Klimapolitik," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(s1), pages 56-74, May.
    15. Auerswald, Heike & Konrad, Kai A. & Thum, Marcel, 2011. "Unsichere Klimafolgen und rationale Klimapolitik," Munich Reprints in Economics 13969, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    16. Leo Wangler, 2012. "The political economy of the green technology sector: A study about institutions, diffusion and efficiency," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 51-81, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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