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Breaking Bad: Supply Chain Disruptions in a Streamlined Agent Based Model

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  • Domenico Delli Gatti
  • Elisa Grugni

Abstract

We explore the macro-financial consequences of the disruption of a supply chain in an agent based framework characterized by two networks, a credit network connecting banks and firms and a production network connecting upstream and down-stream firms. We consider two scenarios. In the first one, because of the lockdown all the upstream firms are forced to cut production. This generates a sizable down-turn during the lockdown due to the indirect effects of the shock (network based financial accelerator). In the second scenario, only those upstream firms located in the “red zone” are forced to contract production. In this case the recession is milder and the recovery begins earlier. Upstream firms hit by the shock, in fact, will be abandoned by their customers who will switch to suppliers who are located outside the red zone. In this way firms endogenously reconstruct (at least in part) the supply chain after the disruption. This is the main determinant of the mitigated impact of the shock in the “red zone” type of lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Delli Gatti & Elisa Grugni, 2021. "Breaking Bad: Supply Chain Disruptions in a Streamlined Agent Based Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9029, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9029
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Zhinan & Pei, Shan & Li, Ting & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Risk spillover network in the supply chain system during the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    supply chain disruption; agent based macroeconomic model;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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