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Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance and Debt

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  • Wendell Fleming
  • Jerome L. Stein

Abstract

We use stochastic optimal control-dynamic programming (DP) to derive the optimal foreign debt/net worth, consumption/net worth, current account/net worth, and endogenous growth rate in an open economy. Unlike the literature that uses an Intertemporal Budget Constraint (IBC) or the Maximum Principle, the DP approach does not require perfect foresight or certainty equivalence. Errors of measurement and the effects of unanticipated shocks are corrected in an optimal manner. We contrast the DP and IBC approaches, show how the results of the dynamic programming approach can be interpreted in a traditional simple mean-variance/Tobin-Markowitz context, and explain why our results are generalizations of the Merton model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 744.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_744

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Keywords: stochastic optimal control; foreign debt; international finance; vulnerability to external shocks; sustainable current account deficits;

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References

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  1. Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 2001. "Country Default Risk: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 2001-08, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Gandolfo, Giancarlo & Goldberg, Michael D., 2005. "International Finance And Open-Economy Macroeconomics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 263-266, April.
  3. Stein, Jerome L. & Paladino, Giovanna, 1997. "Recent developments in international finance: A guide to research," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1685-1720, December.
  4. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, June.
  5. Infante, Ettore F & Stein, Jerome L, 1973. "Optimal Growth with Robust Feedback Control," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 47-60, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Jerome L. Stein, 2006. "United States Current Account Deficits: A Stochastic Optimal Control Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1805, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Stein, Jerome L., 2009. "A tale of two debt crises: a stochastic optimal control analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Abutaleb, Ahmed S. & Hamad, Marwa G., 2012. "Optimal foreign debt for Egypt: A stochastic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 544-556.
  4. Jerome L. Stein, 2004. "Optimal Debt and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Environment: an Overview," CESifo Working Paper Series 1363, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Stein, Jerome L., 2011. "The crisis, Fed, Quants and stochastic optimal control," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 272-280, January.
  6. Kwamie Dunbar, 2009. "Stochastic Business Cycle Volatilities, Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth: Lessons from the Global Credit Market Crisis," Working papers 2009-36, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

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