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IMF Credit: How Important Are Political Factors? A Robustness Analysis

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Author Info

  • Jan-Egbert Sturm
  • Helge Berger
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

We test whether, in addition to economic conditions, IMF credit is influenced by political factors. On the basis of a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998, we find that debt service scaled to exports, international reserve holdings scaled to imports and economic growth, as well as investment are robustly related to IMF credit supply. Arguably, these results are broadly consistent with the IMF’s mission. The only political variables which appear to be related to changes in IMF credit are government stability, the quality of the bureaucracy, and a dummy variable indicating the extent of political opposition. Possible interpretations of these findings are discussed.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2002/wp-cesifo-2002-01/642.PDF
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 642.

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Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_642

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Related research

Keywords: IMF credit; political economy.;

References

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  1. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  2. Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Hagen, Rune Jansen, 2009. "Basic analytics of multilateral lending and surveillance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 126-136, September.
  2. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.

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