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Cross-Border Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Estimates Based on Narrative Records

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  • Shafik Hebous
  • Tom Zimmermann

Abstract

We estimate cross-border spillover effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on output, bilateral trade flows, interest rate, and the exchange rate, employing the new IMF action-based fiscal consolidation data. Results indicate a negative effect of foreign fiscal consolidation policies on domestic output. Regarding the transmission mechanism, our results suggest that fiscal consolidations in foreign economies work their way into the domestic economy by negatively affecting exports. We do not find evidence for an interest rate channel. Trade effects are particularly pronounced for some European countries and are insignificant for others, such as the US and Canada. This is not due to the common currency or to differential specialization in trade.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2013/wp-cesifo-2013-06/cesifo1_wp4311.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4311.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4311

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Related research

Keywords: fiscal consolidation; cross-border fiscal policy effects; fiscal adjustment; fiscal spillover;

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References

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  1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
  2. Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori & Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 11/158, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-46, May.
  4. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2012. "Estimating the Effects of Coordinated Fiscal Actions in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3912, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 639-687, October.
  7. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Gravity models in integrated panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 435-446, October.
  8. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549, 07.
  9. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2010. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate and Traded Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 437-461, 05.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, 09.
  12. Andrea Pescatori & Daniel Leigh & Jaime Guajardo & Pete Devries, 2011. "A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 11/128, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Michaillat, Pascal, 2012. "A Theory of Countercyclical Government-Consumption Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 9052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2013. "Estimating the effects of coordinated fiscal actions in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-121.

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