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Heterogeneous Autoregressions in Short T Panel Data Models

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Liying Yang

Abstract

This paper considers a first-order autoregressive panel data model with individual-specific effects and a heterogeneous autoregressive coefficient. It proposes estimators for the moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive coefficients, with a focus on the first two moments, assuming a random coefficient model for the autoregressive coefficients without imposing any restrictions on the fixed effects. It is shown that the standard generalized method of moments estimators obtained under homogeneous slopes are biased. The paper also investigates conditions under which the probability distribution of the autoregressive coefficients is identified assuming a categorical distribution with a finite number of categories. Small sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and compared with alternatives both under homogenous and heterogeneous slopes. The utility of the heterogeneous approach is illustrated in the case of earning dynamics, where a clear upward pattern is obtained in the mean persistence of earnings by the level of educational attainments.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hashem Pesaran & Liying Yang, 2023. "Heterogeneous Autoregressions in Short T Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 10509, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10509
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2004. "Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    3. Han, Chirok & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2010. "Gmm Estimation For Dynamic Panels With Fixed Effects And Strong Instruments At Unity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 119-151, February.
    4. Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Sasaki, Yuya & Welch, Ivo, 2015. "Estimation of heterogeneous autoregressive parameters with short panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 219-235.
    5. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    6. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic panels; categorical distribution; random and group heterogeneity; short T panels; earnings dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions

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