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Effects of parliamentary elections on primary budget deficits in OECD countries - robustness of the results with regard to alternative econometric estimators

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  • Tobias Hagen

Abstract

Using an unbalanced panel of OECD countries for the period 1989 to 2005, the study tests the political budget cycle hypothesis empirically. The econometric approach is based on the equation proposed by Bohn (1998) for testing the sustainability of fiscal policy and various panel estimators. The empirical results strongly support the hypothesis of smaller primary surpluses (only) in election years. Brender and Drazen's (2005) result - an election effect exists only in new democracies - cannot be verified.

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  • Tobias Hagen, 2010. "Effects of parliamentary elections on primary budget deficits in OECD countries - robustness of the results with regard to alternative econometric estimators," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 135-139, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:135-139
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850701720015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    2. Shi, Min & Svensson, Jakob, 2006. "Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1367-1389, September.
    3. von Hagen, Jurgen, 2005. "Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Performance in the EU and Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 5330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
    6. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    7. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    8. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    10. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Janků, Jan & Libich, Jan, 2019. "Ignorance isn't bliss: Uninformed voters drive budget cycles," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 21-43.

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