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Local Bus Deregulation and Timetable Instability

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  • Alison Oldale
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    Abstract

    This paper presents a model of competition between operators on urban local bus routes in which passengers always board the first bus to arrive, and it is costly to revise timetables. The model predicts that timetables are unstable, the operator whose bus was boarded by fewest passengers is the most likely to change its arrival time, and to try to leapfrog its rival by arriving just before, and that there is a tendency for bus arrival times to be clustered together. These predictions are consistent with observed features of the on-the-road competition on urban local bus routes. On express coach routes, where passengers are more likely to research departure times before travelling, and to arrive at the coach station in order to catch their preferred coach, instability does not arise in the model, and has not been noted as a feature of competition in practice.

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    File URL: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/ei/ei21.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers with number 21.

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    Date of creation: Jan 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:cep:stieip:21

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    Web page: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/default.asp

    Related research

    Keywords: Bus deregulation; instability; urban bus routes; timetables; competition.;

    References

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    1. Dodgson, J. S. & Newton, C. R. & Katsoulacos, Y., 1992. "A modelling framework for the empirical analysis of predatory behaviour in the bus services industry," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 51-70, March.
    2. d'Aspremont, C & Gabszewicz, Jean Jaskold & Thisse, J-F, 1979. "On Hotelling's "Stability in Competition"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1145-50, September.
    3. Sue Jaffer & David Thompson, 1986. "Deregulating express coaches: a reassessment," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 45-68, November.
    4. Novshek, William, 1980. "Equilibrium in simple spatial (or differentiated product) models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 313-326, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. John Sutton, 2001. "Rich Trades, Scarce Capabilities: Industrial Development Revisited," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 28, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    2. Rainer Nitsche, 2002. "On the Effectiveness of Anit-Predation Rules," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-12, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).

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