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Modeling directional (circular) time series

Author

Listed:
  • Harvey, A.
  • Hurn, S.
  • Thiele, S.

Abstract

Circular observations pose special problems for time series modeling. This article shows how the score-driven approach, developed primarily in econometrics, provides a natural solution to the difficulties and leads to a coherent and unified methodology for estimation, model selection and testing. The new methods are illustrated with hourly data on wind direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Harvey, A. & Hurn, S. & Thiele, S., 2019. "Modeling directional (circular) time series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1971, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1971
    Note: ach34
    as

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    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1971.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harvey, Andrew & Thiele, Stephen, 2016. "Testing against changing correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 575-589.
    2. Harvey,Andrew C., 2013. "Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107630024, January.
    3. Jensen, Søren Tolver & Rahbek, Anders, 2004. "Asymptotic Inference For Nonstationary Garch," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1203-1226, December.
    4. Andrew Harvey & Alessandra Luati, 2014. "Filtering With Heavy Tails," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 1112-1122, September.
    5. J. J. Fernández-Durán, 2004. "Circular Distributions Based on Nonnegative Trigonometric Sums," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 499-503, June.
    6. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2013. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Models With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 777-795, August.
    7. Francisco Blasques & Paolo Gorgi & Siem Jan Koopman & Olivier Wintenberger, 2016. "Feasible Invertibility Conditions and Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Observation-Driven Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-082/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Jones, M.C. & Pewsey, Arthur, 2005. "A Family of Symmetric Distributions on the Circle," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1422-1428, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Petra Tomanová & Vladimír Holý, 2021. "Clustering of arrivals in queueing systems: autoregressive conditional duration approach," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 29(3), pages 859-874, September.
    2. Harvey, A., 2021. "Score-driven time series models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2133, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Harvey, A. & Palumbo, D., 2021. "Regime switching models for directional and linear observations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2123, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregression; circular data; dynamic conditional score model; von Mises distribution; wind direction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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