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Self-fulfilling Prophecies in Rank Order Tests

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  • Ili, Dragan

Abstract

Modeled rank order tests have become a powerful tool to infer discrimination through observational outcome data such as police search success rates or errors in court decisions. The tests predict that outcomes that are born out NEWLINE of prejudice by decisionmakers will violate certain rank order patterns among the treated groups. This paper presents an unnoticed issue in these tests. I advance a rank order model that includes strategic behavior of the NEWLINE treated with respect to the decisionmakers' beliefs about them. This feedback mechanism can give rise to multiple equilibria, which can invalidate the use of the test.

Suggested Citation

  • Ili, Dragan, 2016. "Self-fulfilling Prophecies in Rank Order Tests," Working papers 2016/05, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2016/05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shamena Anwar & Patrick Bayer & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2010. "Jury Discrimination in Criminal Trials," Working Papers 671, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Shamena Anwar & Hanming Fang, 2006. "An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 127-151, March.
    3. Jonathan Guryan & Kerwin Kofi Charles, 2013. "Taste‐based or Statistical Discrimination: The Economics of Discrimination Returns to its Roots," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(11), pages 417-432, November.
    4. Patrick Bayer & Randi Hjalmarsson & Shamena Anwar, 2010. "Jury Discrimination in Criminal Trials," Working Papers 10-57, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    5. Anbarci, Nejat & Lee, Jungmin, 2014. "Detecting racial bias in speed discounting: Evidence from speeding tickets in Boston," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 11-24.
    6. Close Billy R & Mason Patrick Leon, 2007. "Searching for Efficient Enforcement: Officer Characteristics and Racially Biased Policing," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 263-321, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilić, Dragan, 2018. "Prejudice in naturalization decisions: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Ili, Dragan, 2016. "Prejudice in Naturalization Decisions: Theory and Evidence," Working papers 2016/04, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.

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