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The Power of Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap

Author

Listed:
  • Masayuki Inui

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Sohei Kaihatsu

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

In this study, we examine what unconventional monetary policy measures are effective in escaping from a liquidity trap. We develop a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with uninsurable income uncertainty and a borrowing constraint. We show that adverse effects of income uncertainty deteriorate in the liquidity trap, which crucially undermines the transmission mechanism of unconventional monetary policy through an increase in precautionary savings. We then draw the following implications: (1) decreasing risk premiums by quantitative easing (QE) is more effective than forward guidance (FG) in the liquidity trap; (2) when the liquidity trap becomes deeper, central banks should conduct QE with sufficiently rapid pace of asset purchases; and (3) the combination of QE and FG yields synergy effects that strengthen the power to escape from the liquidity trap through mitigating precautionary saving motives.

Suggested Citation

  • Masayuki Inui & Sohei Kaihatsu, 2016. "The Power of Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp16e16
    as

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    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2016/data/wp16e16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using explicit aggregation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 69-78, January.
    2. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    3. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    4. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2013. "QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3. . . : A Framework for Analyzing Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 5-53, January.
    5. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Andrew Glover & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2011. "Facts on the distributions of earnings, income, and wealth in the United States: 2007 update," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63, december.
    2. Julián Caballero & Blaise Gadanecz, 2023. "Did interest rate guidance in emerging markets work?," BIS Working Papers 1080, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unconventional monetary policy; liquidity trap; uninsurable income uncertainty; incomplete market; quantitative easing; forward guidance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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