Volatility and the Hedging Effectiveness of China Fuel Oil Futures
AbstractThis paper is an original study of the volatility in China’s oil fuel spot and futures markets, and in the spot market of Singapore one of China’s main source of imports. GARCH(1,1), TGARCH(1,1) and a constant variance model are estimated using 500 daily observations from 25 August 2005. The optimum hedge ratios derived from the competing models are evaluated in terms of the variance and semi-variance (downside) risk that they promise compared with a no-hedge portfolio: and also in terms of their expected utility. This is also accomplished for hedging in the Singapore market. Out-of-sample observations (54) are used to up-date, day-by-day, the variance-covariance matrices from the estimation period. The findings are used to compare the competing models, and the two hedging strategies, over that extended period. They showed the stability of the original estimates and of the ranking of the models under any given criterion. Hedging in China’s market is more effective in terms of reducing downside risk and maximising expected utility than is hedging in Singapore’s market. The latter dominates in terms of variance reduction.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 10-15.
Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
China's fuel oil spot and futures returns; Singapore's spot market; volatility; bivariate GARCH and TGARCH; hedged portfolio returns; variance reduction; downside risk; expected utility;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2010-05-22 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2010-05-22 (Risk Management)
- NEP-SEA-2010-05-22 (South East Asia)
- NEP-TRA-2010-05-22 (Transition Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Colin Rowat).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.