The Predictability of KLSE CI Stock Index Futures Returns and The Conditional Multifactor APT Model
AbstractNumerous studies have shown that returns on stocks and futures can to some extent be predicted over time, and that for developed financial markets, the predictions are compatible with the beta-asset pricing (APT) paradigm. Increasingly more studies have been undertaken of the veracity of such a paradigm in emerging markets. It has been contended that the paradigm is inapplicable to those markets and will, in any event, be unable to account for predicted asset returns. In this study we consider the Stock Exchange futures market in Malaysia, which has been neglected in the literature. Our econometric findings (using GMM) indicate that the APT model can be used as a rationale for the predictability of asset returns using local information, with the betas’ being constant and the expected risk premia being time-varying.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 06-09.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joelle Miffre, 2002. "The predictability of futures returns: rational variation in required returns or market inefficiency?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 715-724.
- Jo�lle Miffre, 2001. "Efficiency in the Pricing of the FTSE 100 Futures Contract," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 7(1), pages 9-22.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Perron, P., 1994.
"Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables,"
Cahiers de recherche
9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Connor, Gregory, 1984. "A unified beta pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 13-31, October.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-49, July.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1992. "Time-varying risk premia and forecastable returns in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 169-193, October.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 19-50, January.
- Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Colin Rowat).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.