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External demand and export performance: regression residuals during the Covid-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Gloria Allione

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alberto Felettigh

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We econometrically investigate the heterogeneous ability of Italian exporting sectors at coping with the Covid-19 shock, which affected in an idiosyncratic fashion both supply, mainly due to the selective suspension of non-essential activities in the country during the lockdown in March-April 2020, and foreign demand. Our results show that had the lockdown not impaired production, overall Italian manufacturing exports would have fallen essentially one-to-one with foreign demand. We conclude that there is no evidence, so far, of Covid-19 having permanently weakened the decade-long ability of Italian firms to safeguard their positions in international markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gloria Allione & Alberto Felettigh, 2021. "External demand and export performance: regression residuals during the Covid-19 pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 643, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_643_21
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cigna, Simone & Quaglietti, Lucia, 2020. "The great trade collapse of 2020 and the amplification role of global value chains," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    2. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A Macro–Micro Narrative of Italian Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Stefano Federico & Claire Giordano, 2021. "Beneath the surface: investigating industry heterogeneity in Italy’s goods export market share performance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Federico & Claire Giordano, 2021. "Beneath the surface: investigating industry heterogeneity in Italy’s goods export market share performance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential demand; export performance; sectoral heterogeneity; Covid-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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