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The great trade collapse of 2020 and the amplification role of global value chains

Author

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  • Cigna, Simone
  • Quaglietti, Lucia

Abstract

The world economy is facing an unprecedented shock, and as the impact of the pandemic unfolds, world trade will be hit particularly hard. Global value chain linkages are likely to magnify the impact. This box assesses the effects of disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and provides estimates of the impact on world trade. We find that GVC spillovers could significantly amplify the decline in world trade. JEL Classification: F31, F41, F60

Suggested Citation

  • Cigna, Simone & Quaglietti, Lucia, 2020. "The great trade collapse of 2020 and the amplification role of global value chains," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2020:0005:2
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2020/html/ecb.ebbox202005_02~da476a5273.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Simona Giglioli & Giorgia Giovannetti & Enrico Marvasi & Arianna Vivoli, 2021. "The Resilience of Global Value Chains during the Covid-19 pandemic: the case of Italy," Working Papers - Economics wp2021_07.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    2. Rafal Rowinski, 2020. "The Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus Epidemic on the Tourism Economy- Negative Effects and Projection of Changes in Tourism Trends," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 638-647.
    3. Gloria Allione & Alberto Felettigh, 2021. "External demand and export performance: regression residuals during the Covid-19 pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 643, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Global value chains; World Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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