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Market- and Book-Based Models of Probability of Default for Developing Macroprudential Policy Tools

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  • Xisong Jin

    ()

  • Francisco Nadal de Simone

    ()

Abstract

The recent financial crisis raised awareness of the need for a framework for conducting macroprudential policy. Identifying as early as possible and addressing the buildup of endogenous imbalances, exogenous shocks, and contagion from financial markets, market infrastructures, and financial institutions are key elements of a sound macroprudential framework. This paper contributes to this literature by estimating several models of default probability, two of which relax two key assumptions of the Merton model: the assumption of constant asset volatility and the assumption of a single debt maturity. The study uses market and banks? balance sheet data. It finds that systemic risk in Luxembourg banks, while mildly correlated with that of European banking groups, did not increase as dramatically as it did for the European banking groups during the heights of the financial crisis. In addition, it finds that systemic risk has declined during the second half of 2010, both for the banking groups as well as for the Luxembourg banks. Finally, this study illustrates how models of default probability can be used for event-study purposes, for simulation exercises, and for ranking default probabilities during a period of distress according to banks? business lines. As such, this study is a stepping stone toward developing an operational framework to produce quantitative judgments on systemic risk and financial stability in Luxembourg.

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File URL: http://www.bcl.lu/fr/publications/cahiers_etudes/65/BCLWP065.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Luxembourg in its series BCL working papers with number 65.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp065

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Web page: http://www.bcl.lu/

Related research

Keywords: financial stability; credit risk; structured products; default probability; GARCH;

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References

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  1. Marcos Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak & Francisco Vazquez, 2009. "Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 189, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Thorsten Lehnert & Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal de Simone, 2011. "Does the GARCH Structural Credit Risk Model Make a Difference?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 11-6, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  3. Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 541-552, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Gaston Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2012. "An Empirical Study on the Impact of Basel III Standards on Banks? Default Risk: The Case of Luxembourg," BCL working papers 79, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  2. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2012. "An Early-warning and Dynamic Forecasting Framework of Default Probabilities for the Macroprudential Policy Indicators Arsenal," BCL working papers 75, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  3. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2013. "Banking Systemic Vulnerabilities: A Tail-risk Dynamic CIMDO Approach," BCL working papers 82, Central Bank of Luxembourg.

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