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Evaluating Linear and Non-Linear Time-Varying Forecast-Combination Methods

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Author Info

  • Fuchun Li
  • Greg Tkacz

Abstract

This paper evaluates linear and non-linear forecast-combination methods. Among the non-linear methods, we propose a nonparametric kernel-regression weighting approach that allows maximum flexibility of the weighting parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to compare the performance of the different weighting schemes. The simulation results show that the non-linear combination methods are superior in all scenarios considered. When forecast errors are correlated across models, the nonparametric weighting scheme yields the lowest mean-squared errors. When no such correlation exists, forecasts combined using artificial neural networks are superior.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp01-12.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 01-12.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:01-12

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Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods;

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References

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  1. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Peter Pauly, 1986. "Structural change and the combination of forecasts," Special Studies Papers 201, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Clemon, Robert T & Winkler, Robert L, 1986. "Combining Economic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 39-46, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
  2. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2008. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing GARCH models," MPRA Paper 13662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kevin Moran & Veronika Dolar, 2002. "Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data," Working Papers 02-18, Bank of Canada.

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